12.02.2015 - Unemployment in Australia has shown a strong growth
The price of euro continues to consolidate in the sideways trend amid expectations of solution of the Greek crisis, as well as the completion of the negotiations in Minsk on Ukrainian crisis. It is worth noting that yesterday, investors were in no hurry to build up positions before the EU summit, which will take place today, as well as due to the expectation of publication the data on retail sales in the US in January (13:30 GMT). Today, the course of trading will also be affected by the data on the consumer price index in Germany (07:00 GMT) and industrial production in the euro area (10:00 GMT). At the moment, investors are watching the political events more than macroeconomic data. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro in connection with the launch of the quantitative easing program in March.
The price of the British pound was unable to continue its upward movement and returned to the previous levels. The balance of house prices in the UK has shown a reduction to 7% in January from 12% in December. In addition, investors decided to fix position before the quarterly report of the Bank of England on inflation, as well as the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney (13:30 GMT). In addition, investors are watching the development of the Greek crisis, which may adversely affect the stability of the financial system of the European Union. To change the negative trend will be needed a substantial boost. At the moment, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of yen fell again amid improved investor expectations regarding the Greek crisis, as well as in connection with the stable strengthening of the dollar. It is worth noting that today was published statistics on producer price index in January whose growth slowed to 0.3%, compared with an expected 1.2%. At the same time, the increase in the number of orders for machinery equipment in Japan slowed to 20.4% in January, against 33.9% in the previous month. Today, investors expect the release of data on retail sales in the US (13:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
The price of the Australian dollar fell sharply against the background of negative statistics on the labor market in the country. Thus, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.4% in January, which is 0.3% less than the previous figure, and the number of employed people fell by 12.2 thousand, against the expected growth of 4,7 thousand. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently lowered the interest rate to 2.25% in order to maintain economic growth. The main negative factor for Australia is slowing growth in China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar will continue to fall following the Australian currency, after the release of a weak labor market report in Australia. Economy of two countries are trading partners and strongly depend on the economic situation in China, which is the main trading partner for New Zealand. At the moment, there is no reason to talk about changing the negative trend in the price of the New Zealand dollar, and we keep medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.