12.02.2016 - In Japan, hinted at the possibility of intervention on the forex market
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to rise against the US dollar amid falling demand for the dollar and the increased interest of investors for defensive currencies like the yen and the euro. It should be noted that the fall on the stock markets of the world and the US continues to put pressure on sentiment concerning the US dollar. The Fed chief said yesterday, that does not rule out raising interest rates in the coming months, despite the instability on the financial markets to determine the impact of which on the economy of the country will need more time. Today, the market volatility will remain elevated in connection with the publication of preliminary data on GDP growth in Germany (07:00 GMT) and the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). Strong price movement is possible after the publication of data on retail sales in the US (13:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative despite the possible continuation of growth in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound against the weakening US dollar showed growth, but it is limited by weak macroeconomic data according to which the industrial production in the country that in December fell by 1.1%. At the same time, long-term investors are not going to open long positions on the British currency until the referendum on the country's membership in the European Union. Today will be published statistics on production in the UK construction sector. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar on a background of falling stock markets, which increased the demand for defensive assets. It is worth noting that yesterday was a public holiday and investors today returned to the market in the country. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the necessary measures will be taken to stabilize the situation with the exchange rate of the yen. In addition, was held a meeting with the head of the Bank of Japan, but he did not disclose the details. These developments point to the possibility of intervention on the market and a sharp drop in the price of the yen next week. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, and we expect strong price movements in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate and is influenced by two contradictory factors. On the one hand the fall in oil price continues to put pressure on the currency, but on the other hand the US dollar continues to decline which is positive for the price of the Australian dollar. Strengthening of the price of gold also has a positive effect on the country's trade balance and consequently on the Australian dollar quotes. We forecast a drop in the Australian dollar prices in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed its fall against the background of lack of drivers for continued growth and the overall negative outlook for the price of the national currency of New Zealand, due to lower prices for dairy products and commodities, slowing growth in China, as well as the expectation of a further reduction in interest rates against the background of low inflation in the country. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and expect the decrease in the near future.