12.02.2016 - The fall of the yen has led to a decrease on the Japanese market
American stock indexes showed a decline yesterday on the background of continuing decline in oil prices, due to the slowdown in the global economy, rising inventories and a decrease in the growth forecasts for oil demand this year. According to Goldman Sachs estimates the decline may continue until the level of 20 dollars per barrel. On the other hand, investors are pleased with the strong data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US, which fell last week to 269 thousand, against the forecast of 281 thousand. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the US retail sales data (13:30 GMT), as well as the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT). Our forecast for the coming months remains negative, but we do not exclude the correction in the coming days.
The main European stock indexes continue to show a high level of volatility on the background of the recent stock fluctuations in the euro area banking sector. The data on GDP growth in Germany in Q4 2015 was released today, according to which index grew by 0.3%, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. Also today, will be published statistics on the volume of industrial production for December and GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year. We expect increased volatility in the near future, and the likelihood of upward correction in the near future has increased.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region continues to be under the pressure from the global pessimistic investor sentiment due to falling commodity prices and increasing uncertainty about the situation on the stock markets amid a slowing world economy. Significant strengthening of the yen continues to put pressure on the Japanese market. There is a possibility of sharp growth on the next week in Japan, in the case of Bank of Japan intervention to stabilize the price of the yen. Trading session in Shanghai was still closed due to the celebration of the New Year according to the lunar calendar. In Australia are rising the gold miners stocks against the backdrop of steady rise in precious metal prices. We expect strong volatility next week after returning of Chinese investors to the market.