12.03.2015 - Unemployment in Australia declined to 6.3%

The price of euro yesterday continued to decline amid expectations of rising interest rates by the Fed in the summer, as well as in connection with the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi in which he stressed that the program should support the recovery of inflationary expectations and consumption in the region. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on industrial production in the euro area (10:00 GMT), retail sales and data on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). Investors continue to follow the negotiations in Greece and creditors to restructure the country's debt. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and recommend holding short positions.

The price of the British pound continued to decline against the background of a significant drop in prices of euro and a stronger US dollar, which is caused by the expectation of monetary tightening by the Fed in connection with the improvement in the US labor market. Negative for the British currency was the news on industrial production, which fell by 0.1% in January against the expected growth of 0.2%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance of the United Kingdom (09:30 GMT) and the speech of Governor of the Bank of England (12:45 GMT). We expect a further fall in prices of the British currency in the near future.

The price of yen stabilized before publication of important statistics on retail sales in the US (12:30 GMT). In recent times indicator did not meet the expectations of analysts, and in the case of repetition of the situation, the yen may strengthen against the US dollar. Quotes of the yen today were supported by the statistics on the tertiary index of business activity in the services sector, which grew by 1.4% in January, against the expected 0.6%. The consumer confidence index in February was 40.7, which is 0.8 better than analysts' expectations. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen.

The price of the Australian dollar rose today against the background of an unexpected reduction in the unemployment rate by 0.1% to 6.3%. At the same time, the number of employed in February increased by 15,6 thousand, against the expected 15,3 thousand. Low commodity prices will continue to have a negative impact on price of the Australian dollar. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.

The price of the New Zealand dollar reached the target level of 0.72 and then started to correct upwards. Support for the price of the New Zealand dollar was the data from the Australian unemployment rate, as well as profit-taking on short positions. According to our estimates, quotes will stabilize in the near future. In the short term is likely the continuation of the uptrend. For medium-term forecasting, we need new signals.

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