12.04.2016 - Gold rises on a background of rise of interest in defensive assets
The price of gold continued to rise amid growing fears of investors about the situation in the stock markets. Thus, the completion of the growth on the stock markets reinforces the interest in defensive assets like gold and the yen. In addition, the rhetoric of the Fed indicates concerns about global economic growth, which can lead to a longer saving of the Fed's interest rates at the current level. According to our estimates, the growth of gold may continue in the near future to the level of 1300 dollars per troy ounce. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the expectation of rising inflation in the US that will force the Fed to raise interest rates.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to grow in spite of the news of the reduction of the forecasted cost of oil in Iraq by 13 dollars to 32 dollars. The main reason for the growth was the expectation of a positive outcome of the meeting a number of major oil producers in Doha on 17 April which will help to reduce the excess supply of oil on the market. According to our estimates, the results of this meeting will not really affect the imbalance of supply and demand on the market and the growth of production in Iran and Libya will continue to grow. Tomorrow will be published important data on US oil inventories. At this point it is possible to accumulate short positions with the potential reduction of oil by 15-20% in the near future.