12.04.2016 - ​Japanese authorities may take steps to weaken the yen

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate against the background of the lack of important events and news in the Eurozone and the US. It is worth noting that after a long consolidation, we expect a strong price movement. Today, little influence on the course of trading will have news on the index of optimism in the US small business (10:00 GMT), but activity on the market will be limited due to the anticipation of the release of data on US retail sales tomorrow. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we expect the resumption of the fall in the near future.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed strong growth yesterday. The main driver for the movement of the British currency prices remain expectations of referendum on the country's membership in the euro area. Today, the volatility will affect the data on inflation (08:30 GMT). We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of the British pound and expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices closer to the referendum on 23 June, after which the price growth can resume.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. Japanese yen price fell slightly against the US dollar on the background of statements by Finance Minister Taro Aso on possible steps by the authorities to deal with speculations on the currency market, which has led to unreasonable strengthening of the Japanese yen over recent months. At the same time, pessimism about growth prospects for the US stock markets, supports the demand for defensive assets like the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, but for its reduction we need stability on the financial markets.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar today showed growth against the background of rising oil prices, as well as the positive statistics on the index of business sentiment in Australia, which rose to 6 in March, which is two times better than the previous figure. In the second half of the week, we expect continued high volatility of the Australian currency in connection with the release of data on the trade balance, GDP and industrial production in China, as well as the labor market in Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar extended gains following the Australian currency, as well as due to the increase in commodities’ prices. Tomorrow the course of trading will affect the news on the trade balance and on Friday GDP and industry in China. It is worth noting that macro data in New Zealand is gradually improving, that will support the currency in the near future. The strong influence tomorrow can have the dynamics of the US dollar, and also the publication of data on the index of business confidence in the manufacturing sector in New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

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