12.05.2015 - Commodity markets have stabilized and are waiting for new signals
The price of gold fell after the government of Greece said to pay more than 750 million euro on the IMF loan, which reduced the fears of investors and the demand for defensive assets decreased. At the same time today, the finance ministers of the euro area economy and will discuss the Greek crisis. Demand for physical gold in Asia remained weak. A factor that may have a positive impact on investor sentiment with respect to gold, can be a significant correction in the US stock markets. On the other hand, the Fed raising interest rates will lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and a fall in the price of the yellow metal. We keep medium-term positive outlook, but it is expected that the quotes will be close to the current levels in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate near the level of 60 dollars per barrel. Investors continue to closely monitor the number of drilling rigs in the United States, which dropped for the 22 consecutive week, but in some areas their number increased. It is worth noting the minimum reduction of oil production in the United States. At the same time, an excess of oil on the market according to experts is around 1-2 million barrels that generates a high level of inventories. The central theme of the next month will be the process of giving up sanctions against Iran, which will lead to an increase in oil supplies in the market for about 1 million barrels in 2016. In this regard, we are likely to expect a resumption of the downward movement in oil prices in the coming weeks with the potential fall to 50 and 40 dollars per barrel. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.