12.05.2015 - Greece remains the main risk for the growth of markets
US stock indexes showed a decline yesterday on concerns about slowing Chinese economy, which has led to the third of the six months lowering interest rates in the country. It should be noted that despite the lack of negative factors on the market, we do not see drivers for the continued growth and renewal of historic highs. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said that the Fed will not warn on raising interest rates before making such a decision. Today, the dynamics will depend on the statistics of small business optimism in the US (13:00 GMT) and the number of vacancies on the labor market in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but we expect further price correction in the near future.
European stocks showed a decrease due to the uncertainty regarding the Greek debt restructuring despite the disposal to pay more than 750 million euro on the IMF loan. At the same time, the British markets were down after the strong growth of the previous days, which was caused by the victory of the Conservative Party on the parliamentary elections, which will allow Prime Minister David Cameron to form a government quickly. Today, the British market was supported by news on the growth of industrial production in the country by 0.5% against expectations of growth absence. We forecast growth in European stock markets due to the quantitative easing program and the improvement of macroeconomic indicators in the euro area, which is caused by the weak euro and the fall in oil prices. On the other hand the Greek crisis could lead to a drop in the markets in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decrease on the background of the deterioration in investor sentiment in the United States. At the same time, lowering interest rates by the Central Bank of China by 0.25%, shows the growth weakness of the Chinese economy. At the moment, investors are in no hurry to accumulate new positions before the release of the important statistics tomorrow. So, special attention should be paid to the balance of payments statistics and bank lending in Japan, as well as industrial production and retail sales in China. Our medium-term outlook for the stock markets in the region remains positive.