12.05.2015 - The Greek crisis continues to be the focus of investors

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro stopped falling due to news that the Greek government ordered to make a payment of about 750 million euros on the IMF loan. At the same time, negotiations on debt restructuring don’t give results and keep the tension on the market. At the same time, the euro continues to be under the pressure of the quantitative easing program which will continue until September 2016. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the news from the summit of ministers of economy and finance in the euro area, as well as statistics on the index of small business optimism in the US (13:00 GMT) and the number of open positions in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

EUR/USD Index of April 8

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound strengthened yesterday after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. It is worth noting that the main support for the British currency is the part of investors' optimism regarding the victory of the Conservative Party at the parliamentary elections, which will form the government in the short term. Many investors were afraid of the political crisis in the event of the need to form a coalition government. Today, investors’ activity will be increased in connection with the publication of data on industrial output in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but growth may continue in the near future.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen weakened against the background of a more positive sentiment towards the US dollar. Analysts say that the Fed will not be making announcement before raising interest rates and that the question is constantly discussing during the Fed meetings. On the other hand demand for yen is supported by uncertainty about the situation with the Greek debt crisis, which increases the demand for protective assets. Our medium-term outlook for the Japanese yen remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar strengthened slightly after the publication of statistics on the increase in the number of mortgage loans in March by 1.6%, which was higher than expected increase of 1.0%. It is worth recalling that the building sector is crucial to the Australian economy and investors are closely watching the dynamics of the housing market amid a decline in investment in the mining sector. The course of trading today will be affected by the publication of the draft state budget of Australia (9:30 GMT). Tomorrow the focus will be on statistics on industrial production in China, which traditionally has a strong effect on the course of trading. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to decline against the background of deteriorating macroeconomic data, as well as the expectation of lower interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to support economic growth and consumer demand in the country. It is worth noting that prices for dairy products remain at low levels and farmers' incomes remain low, which worsens the situation in the agricultural sector of the country, which is the basis for the New Zealand economy. We expect continuation of falling prices in the near future to 0.72.

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