12.05.2016 - The volatility of the pound may rise after the recent consolidation
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a slight increase against the US dollar, which was caused by technical factors and profit-taking after the recent strengthening of the US currency. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on industrial production in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT), as well as presentations from the Fed. Activity on the market will be held back amid waiting for the release of data on US retail sales and GDP statistics for the euro area tomorrow.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate despite yesterday's publication of important statistics on industrial production, which grew by 0.3% in March, after falling by 0.2% in February. Today, the market volatility may increase due to the quarterly report on inflation, the Bank of England interest rate decision and the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of England (11:00 GMT). Moreover, at 11:45 GMT, will be the speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. Our outlook on the British pound in the coming weeks remains negative due to the likely increase in speculation regarding the exit of Great Britain from the European Union after the referendum on 23 June.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen after еру recent strengthening against the US dollar, has resumed the negative dynamics and in the near future can continue it. It is worth noting that earlier the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso announced his intention to use foreign exchange intervention in case of further speculative growth of the yen. Today has been published statistics on the balance of payments of Japan which rose to 1.89 trillion yen in March, against 1.69 trillion yen in February. One of the reasons for this increase was the record level of tourists in the country. We forecast a drop in the yen against the US dollar amid divergence of monetary policy in Japan and the United States.
Currency trading the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar after a slight correction resumed its fall, which is likely to continue in the near future against the background of unstable situation on commodity markets. Strong influence on the dynamics of the local currency may have data on the volume of industrial production in China, which is the main trading partner of the country. According to our estimates, the fall of the Australian dollar will continue in the near future and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has corrected upwards on a background of technical factors and the weakening of the US dollar. It should be noted that the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector of the industry in New Zealand showed an increase to 56.5 in April from 54.7 in March, which supported the local currency. Despite this, the potential for continued growth in the near future is limited and we expect the resumption of the fall of quotations in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.