12.06.2015 - Retail sales in the United States supported USD
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell against the background of strong statistics on retail sales in the United States. Thus, the index increased in May by 1.2%, which is 0.1% better than the forecast of analysts. At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims in the US totaled 279 thousand, against 277 thousand expected. Support for the dollar also has become the news of an increase in business inventories in April by 0.4%, which is two times more than analysts' expectations. Improving statistics in the US increases the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates at its meeting in September. The fall of euro yesterday was restrained by the improved prognosis of the World Bank on economic growth in the euro area in 2015, to 1.5%, against the previous forecast of 1.1%. Support for the economy of the monetary union became low oil prices and decline of the euro. Today, the dynamics will depend on the statistics on industrial production in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the Consumer Price Index (12:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). We expect a decline of the euro in the medium term and continue to monitor the Greek crisis.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell against the strengthening US dollar, which was caused by strong statistics on retail sales and inventories. Improving statistics indicate acceleration of economic growth in the second quarter, which is likely to offset the weak results of the US GDP in the first quarter. Today in the UK will be published important statistics on the volume of industrial production in the country (08:30 GMT), which will support the growth of a further increase of the pound. We assume continued growth today, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen has fallen significantly against the background of a price increase of the US dollar, as well as in connection with the statement of an unknown source according to which the government of Japan did not support the view of the Bank of Japan's chairman Haruhiko Kuroda relatively undervalued yen. The fall of the yen stopped amid strong data on industrial production, which rose in April by 1.2% that is 1.0% better than expected. We expect price decline of the yen in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate near the levels of the previous day despite the strengthening of the US dollar. Investors reacted positively to a strong labor market statistics in a country where the unemployment rate fell to 6.0%. It is worth noting that the Australian dollar continues to be under the pressure of low commodity prices and loose monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. We see no reason for the significant increase in prices in the near future and look forward to the resumption of a downward price movement.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate near the psychologically important level 0.70, which was reached after the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.25%. The move is aimed at supporting domestic demand. The RBNZ declare readiness for further easing of monetary policy. In this regard, we expect a decrease in quotations in the medium term.