12.07.2016 - Tensions slightly decreased in the UK
Currency trading and the euro. Price of euro rose against the strengthening of the British pound, after it became known that Theresa May will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and will lead the process of country's exit from the EU. This fact reduced concerns of investors and as a result the euro showed a slight increase in quotes. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect speech by the Fed officials, as well as statistics on wholesale inventories and the number of open vacancies in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the forecasted strengthening of the dollar and the negative effects UK’s exit from the EU's.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed growth after it became known that the next prime minister will be Theresa May, which reduced the level of tension on the market. Today, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney (09:00 GMT) in which he may indicate further steps of the central bank on monetary easing as a reduction of interest rates and bond buying program. Our medium-term outlook for the British currency remains negative, but we do not rule out short-term correction in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. Price of the Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US dollar on the background of fixing positions after strengthening in recent weeks, as well as by hopes for the launch of additional stimulus measures after the ruling party has won the election in the upper house of parliament. Prime Minister Abe stated that will instruct the Minister of Finance on the preparation of stimulation programs, but did not specify on its volumes. We forecast a drop in the yen against the US dollar in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar rose after have been published strong data on the index of business sentiment in Australia, which rose to 6 in June, compared to 3 in May. This fact reduces the likelihood of the RBA monetary easing during its next meeting. Tomorrow may be a strong price movement after will be published the data on China's trade surplus and the consumer confidence index in the United States. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, and growth potential in the near future considerably reduced.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar extended gains following the Australian currency. The dynamics of trading continues to influence increased demand for government bonds of country that have a high level of reliability, but whose profitability is higher compared with American bonds. Further movement of prices will depend on the statistics of China's trade and GDP growth, which will be released later this week. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.