12.08.2016 - Data on retail sales in the US will lead to an increase in volatility

American stock market yesterday showed growth against the backdrop of rising oil prices due to speculation on a possible consensus on the freezing of oil production in the OPEC. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the important data on retail sales in the US (12:30 GMT), the growth of which on one hand will point to positive trends in the economy, but on the other hand will increase confidence in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year. In addition, we should pay attention to the data on the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for US indices is negative and we expect the beginning of reduction in the coming weeks.

European stocks are consolidated around the previous closing levels in anticipation of important statistics on the volume of industrial production and the preliminary report on GDP growth in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). It is worth noting that earlier today released statistics on the growth of the German economy by 0.4% in the second quarter against the forecast of growth by 0.3%. In the UK market continues to be under the pressure of negative data from the UK, due to the effects of the country's exit from the EU. So, today were released the news of the fall in production of the construction sector by 0.9% in June against the forecast of growth by 0.9%. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for European markets and look forward to the beginning of the correction in the near future.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region rose today, despite the publication of weaker statistics from China. Thus, the volume of industrial production in China rose by 6.0% in June compared with the same month last year, which is 0.2% less than the forecast, while retail sales in the same period increased by 10.2% against the forecast of 10, 5%. Growth on the Japanese market was supported by positive dynamics of US markets and the weakening of the yen. On Monday, is expected increased activity after the release of the report on GDP and industrial production in Japan. Our medium-term outlook for the region's markets remains negative.

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