12.08.2016 - Oil rose sharply, but will probably correct downwards

The price of gold fell on a stronger US dollar, as well as due to the expectation of the US publication of important statistics on retail sales (12:30 GMT). On the trading dynamics can also affect data on GDP growth in the euro area in the second quarter. The focus of investors in the coming week will be on investors' expectations regarding the timing of the Fed raising interest rates, as well as the dynamics of US indexes. In case of decrease on the stock markets, we expect a growing interest in gold as a safe asset. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil has shown steady growth amid speculation that OPEC countries can reach consensus regarding freezing of oil production volumes. This decision can be made at the end of September, but according to our estimates its probability is low. At the same time, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for growth in oil demand this year by 0.1 million barrels a day to 1.4 million barrels per day. It is worth noting that the agency also forecast reaching a balance in the near future. The excess of US oil supply on the market and increase in drilling activity will put pressure on oil prices in the medium term. We expect the oil price correction in the near future.

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