12.09.2016 - The yen rose against the background of strong statistics in Japan

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline against the US dollar after on Friday President of Boston’s FRB Eric Rosengren stated the need for tightening US monetary policy to prevent the economy from overheating. It is worth mentioning that a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be held on 20-21 September, and the Fed raising interest rates will greatly strengthen the US dollar and weaken the positions of the euro. This week will be published many important statistics, among which special attention should be paid to retail sales on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index in the US on Friday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decline in the euro quotations in the coming weeks and the medium term.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed decline amid stronger US dollar due to the increased probability of the Fed tightening monetary policy this year. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will influence inflation data in the UK, which will affect the future decision of the Bank of England on the monetary policy settings in the country that will be published on Thursday. In addition, on Friday, we should pay attention to the statistics on employment in the country. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative due to the consequences of the future exit of the country from the EU.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened slightly today after on Friday dropped against the US dollar amid speculation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The reason for the strengthening today has become the data on the volume of internal orders for engineering products with the exception of municipal equipment and vessels, which grew by 4.9% in July against the forecast of decline by 2.8%. This week, the main influence on the course of trading will have news from the US. Support for the yen may be the reduction of US indexes. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but we do not exclude the strengthening in the coming weeks.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has recently shown a strong decline against the US dollar on the background of fixing positions among investors, as well as the influence of the fall on commodity markets and the growth of the US currency. Investors are waiting for the publication of important statistics on industrial production in China tomorrow, as well as the report on the labor market in Australia, which will be published on Thursday. According to our estimates, the volatility in the near future will remain elevated. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar in relation to the possible weakening of the RBA’s monetary policy, falling commodity prices and the strengthening of the US dollar.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a decline following the Australian currency. The central event of this week will be the publication of the report on the growth of GDP of the country on Wednesday night. In addition, a strong influence on the dynamics of trading will have news from China, Australia and the USA. The probability of lowering interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for stimulating inflation in the country, is an additional factor that will put pressure on the price. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and prices may decrease by 6-8% in the coming months.

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