12.10.2016 - Gold is consolidated in anticipation of the Fed meeting minutes

The price of gold continues to consolidate after the recent decline in anticipation of today's publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (18:00 GMT). The likelihood of higher interest rates in the US in December is around 70%, which negatively affects the attractiveness of gold as compared with assets that generate interest income. It is worth noting that the traditional increase in demand for gold in India and China in the 4th quarter, with the high level of uncertainty in the financial markets will support the demand for gold. According to our estimates, the decline may continue in the coming months under pressure from expectations of monetary tightening, but the likelihood of the following growth of the price is high. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil stabilized below the level of 52 dollars per barrel in anticipation of tomorrow's publication of important statistics on China’s trade balance and US crude oil inventories. In the near future the focus will be on speculation about the possibility of decline in oil production in the OPEC countries that in September was about the level of 33.64 million barrels per day to 32,50-33,00 million barrels per day. It is worth noting that the increase in drilling activity in the US and an rise in production in OPEC countries and Russia, will put pressure on the quotes. According to our estimates, the growth potential in the near future is limited and investors will accumulate short positions in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

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