12.11.2015 - The markets are waiting for new incentives
Yesterday, the US had a day off and American stock indexes showed a slight decline amid contradictory statistics from China, where industrial production growth slowed down again, but retail sales rose more than expected. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news in the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (13:30 GMT) and the number of vacancies on the labor market (15:00 GMT). In addition, a rise in volatility is possible after the speech of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen (14:30 GMT). The market will be waiting for tomorrow's publication of important data on retail sales in the United States. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but the probability of correction on the market has grown.
Major European stock indexes yesterday showed growth due to positive corporate statistics. The focus of investors was on unexpectedly strong data on unemployment in the UK, which dropped by 5.3%, which was the minimum value since April 2008 and was 0.1% better than expected. Today, investors were disappointed by the news on the volume of industrial production in the euro area, which in September fell by 0.3%, which was 0.2% below expectations of investors. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the trade balance and GDP growth in the euro area, which we estimate will increase investors' optimism. In the medium term, we expect growth on the markets of the region.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region did not show uniform dynamics. The strengthening of the yen hindered growth in Japan, despite the release of statistics on the growth of domestic orders for engineering products by 7.5% in September against the forecast of 3.3%. It is worth noting that the volume of new lending in China in October was at 514 billion against 1.05 trillion in November. Unexpectedly strong statistics was published in Australia, where the unemployment rate fell by 0.3% to 5.9%, thereby reducing the likelihood of lower interest rates of Reserve Bank of Australia. We expect an increase on the stock markets in the region in the medium term despite the instability in China.