12.12.2013- The decisions of Congress and the Fed are in the spotlight
Markets are closely watching the situation in the United States. According to the results of yesterday's trading session the broad index S&P 500 declined slightly within the corridor 1780-1810. Resistance is at 1810. Strong support levels are at 1800 and 1780. The main events of the coming days will be the adoption of the national budget that should take place before December 13. The other issue is the future of the quantitative easing program. Opinions of experts are divided on whether the funding will be reduced after December 17-18 or the question will be postponed till March. Volume of the U.S. wholesale inventories in October increased by 1.4%, and significantly outperformed the 0.3% forecast of analysts. Report on the number of vacancies was also published yesterday. The number of vacancies has increased to 3.93 million, but it turned out worse than the forecast of 3.96 million. Now there is no certainty on the markets. Investors fear to build up new positions before the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Others prefer to fix the profit and wait for clear signals from the government of the world's largest economy. European markets were disappointed by the statistics on industrial production in France, which fell by 0.3% in October, the level of production was expected to grow by 0.2%. At the same time, a similar figure in Italy increased by 0.5%. EUR/USD at that time failed to gain a foothold above the rising channel and started to correct. The closest targets in case of the further correction will be 1.3730 and 1.3660. The course of trading today can be influenced by data on inflation in Germany (07:00 GMT). The possibility of establishing a "banking union" in 2014 has a positive impact on quotations of the pair. Most of important statistic was published in the UK. So the trade deficit fell to 9.7 billion pounds, but has not met the forecast of reduction to 9.2 billion. Industrial production has grown by 0.4% as was expected. The British pound is consolidating around a strong resistance level 1.6440. Market needs new stimulus to continue the growth. The nearest support level is at 1.6320. Today the course of trading can be influenced by the speech of the Monetary Policy Committee member Martin Weale (13:00 GMT). USD/JPY that yesterday failed to overcome a strong level of 103.40, reached the nearest support level at 102.60. Correction started after the release of data on reduction of consumer confidence index to 42.5 vs. expected 44.2. The volume of domestic orders in November increased by 0.6%, which appeared 0.3% lesser than was expected. In case of further decrease, the price can reach 101.90. AUD/USD failed to overcome the resistance at 91.60. We expect a continuation of the movement within the corridor 0.9000 - 0.9160. The closest targets are 0.9060. We maintain a bearish outlook for the pair, because of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia aimed at weakening the national currency. Light sweet crude oil prices increased on forecasts that U.S. crude oil inventories will be reduced for the second consecutive week. Weekly report on changes in inventories will be published at 15:30 GMT. Decline of inventories according to experts should reach 3 million barrels. In case of further growth the target will be the psychological level - 100.00 dollars per barrel. Supports are at 97.00 and 95.20. The important news is that by 15 December 3 oil port in Libya will be opened. A weaker dollar boosted demand for gold, which grows for three sessions in a row. Growth of metal was stopped only by a strong resistance level of 1265. Correction is possible to 1250, 1240. Lack of interest in gold during last year is explained by rising of risk assets. If the trend on the stock markets will change, many investors may again draw their attention to the so-called "safe haven."