12.05.2014 - Markets are waiting for data on industry in China
Major U.S. stock indexes finished the last trading day of the week with a slight increase. The leaders of growth were the shares of retail companies. Among the important macro should be noted the rise in wholesale inventories in March by 1.1% vs. expected 0.5%. At the same time the number of open vacancies outside the agricultural sector dropped to 4.01 million, which is 0.2 million worse than the forecast. The course of trading today can be affected by the report on the federal budget balance (18:00 GMT). It is worth noting that the corporate reporting season is coming to an end and indexes are near maximum values. We expect a decline of U.S. indexes in the medium and long term.
European stocks fell slightly on Friday due to weak data on Germany's trade balance surplus which fell to 14.8 billion in March, against the forecast of growth to $ 16.9 billion The budget deficit of France in March totaled 28.0 billion, against 25.7 billion in February. Investors also negatively perceived decline in industrial production in Italy by 0.5% against the expected growth of 0.2%. Today in Europe is not expected to be released an important macro, but investors will be watching the further development of the situation around the eastern regions of Ukraine. We expect a decline in European markets in the medium and long term.
Dynamics of markets in the Asia-Pacific region was volatile. The support for indexes in the region provides confident growth in China, which was triggered by the expectations of reforms that will simplify the access of foreign capital into the country, which should support markets. Despite this, traders still fear the collapse of the real estate market in China. Japanese market declines amid growing balance of payments deficit in March to 0.78 trillion., against the forecast of 0.54 trillion. as well as reducing economy watchers sentiment to 41.6, vs. expected 45.2. The course of trading tomorrow will be affected by the data on retail sales, industrial production and investments in China (5:30 GMT). We maintain a long-term negative outlook for the stock indexes in China, Japan and Australia.