12.06.2014 - ​RBNZ has raised the rate again

Decline of the euro has stopped yesterday on the background of technical factors, as well as due to lack of important macro in the Eurozone. Traders took a break and are waiting for new signals. Data on the growth of mortgage lending applications by 10.3% in the U.S. against the previous decline of 3.1% did not affect the mood of the market. It should be noted that the decrease in rates by the ECB, as well as falling of bond yields Eurozone encourage bears on the euro. Thus, the yield on Spanish bonds is at a lower level than the U.S., which forces investors to seek more attractive tools for investment. Today, we should pay attention to data on industrial production in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the U.S. retail sales (12:30 GMT) and inventories in the United States (14:00 GMT). We expect a further decline of the euro in the medium

The price of the British pound resumed strong growth amid positive data on the labor market in the country. Thus, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2% in April to 6.6%, the lowest level since January 2009. Also in May, the number of unemployed fell by 27.4 thousand against the forecast of 25.0 thousand decline. Today in Great Britain today is not expected to be released important macroeconomic data and traders will continue to evaluate the statistics on the labor market in the country. Considering strong performance of the economy, we keep the medium and long term positive outlook for the pound.

The Japanese yen continued to strengthen yesterday amid expectations of the Bank of Japan meeting. It is worth noting that the number of experts who expect the introduction of additional incentives for the economy by the Bank of Japan lowered amid positive data on the growth of the economy. Today we expect the upward price correction after yesterday's decline. In the long and medium term we expect the upward price movement of USD/JPY as the policy of regulator remains ultra-soft against tightening of monetary policy in the United States.

The fact that the unemployment rate in Australia has remained at 5.8%, with an expected growth to 5.9%, was unable to keep prices of the Australian dollar from falling. The reason for the decline was the other data on the labor market of the country, which reported a decline of the number of employed people by 4.8 thousand, with an expected growth of 10.3 thousand drop was also provoked by technical factors. Tomorrow the focus of traders will be on statistics on China's industrial production and retail sales. We expect a further fall of the Australian dollar and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

A strong growth of the New Zealand dollar today was triggered by another increase in rates of RBNZ by 0.25% to 3.25%. In addition, the head of the RBNZ said that despite the stability and strength of the national financial system, risks are growing dependence on China, high housing prices and high levels of debt in the dairy industry. We expect continued growth of the New Zealand dollar in the near future, but the growth is limited due to the RBNZ willingness to take measures to fight the high exchange rate of the national currency.

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