13.01.2015 - Demand for the yen rose against the background of falling oil prices
The price of euro showed a slight increase amid speculation concerning smaller volume of quantitative easing by the ECB, the launch of which may be announced after the ECB meeting on January 22. Germany stands for limiting the amount of the purchase of assets and the distribution of risks between the parties in the Eurozone. Today in the euro area will not be published important macroeconomic data and course of trading will depend on the data from the US, where will be released the index of optimism in small business in December (12:30 GMT) and report on the number of open vacancies in November (15:00 GMT). We should also pay attention to the report on the US federal budget (19:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro, but we see potential for further reduction of fall in the near future.
The price of the British pound continues to move below the level of 1.52. Investors yesterday were in no hurry to open new positions ahead of today's publication of a large block of macroeconomic data on inflation in the country. Thus, we should pay attention to data on producer price index, consumer price index, house price index and retail price index (9:30 GMT). We expect increased volatility today and save a negative view on the British pound in the near future.
The price of the Japanese yen continues to rise gradually against the US dollar due to the increased interest in defensive assets such as the yen, which is caused by a sharp fall in oil prices and investors' concerns about the future prospects of growth on world stock markets. Growth indicators of the world economy continued to deteriorate that in the future will be displayed on the dynamics of stock indexes. The yen was also supported by data on the balance of payments, whose surplus made 0.91 trillion yen in November, compared with an expected 0.69 trillion. We assume the possibility of further strengthening of the yen in the near future, but our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after the sharp decline yesterday, which was caused by the strengthening of the US dollar. The fall in commodity prices was also the reason for the decrease in quotations of the Australian currency. Today quotations of the Australian currency were supported by the data from China. Thus, the country's exports rose by 9.7% compared with the same period of the last year, which is significantly better than expected growth of 6.6%. At the same time, imports declined by only 2.4% against the expected 7.0%. According to our forecasts growth of the price may continue in the near future, but a number of fundamental factors continue to put pressure on the Australian currency quotations, which forces us to maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the New Zealand dollar corrected yesterday after the steady growth last week. Today, demand for the New Zealand currency recovered in connection with the positive statistics on China's trade surplus, which is the main importer of New Zealand goods. Further growth in the near future is limited, and we keep the medium-term negative outlook with the recommendation to hold short positions.