13.01.2015 - Statistics on the trade in China, improved market sentiment

American stock indexes yesterday showed a decline after the sharp fall in oil prices which dropped by more than 4%. As a result, energy stocks continued to fall. Goldman Sachs analysts downgraded the outlook for Light Sweet crude oil from 70 to 41 dollars per barrel of oil, which was the catalyst for the fall of prices. Yesterday was not published important macroeconomic data and analysts had expected the informal start of corporate reporting season, which opens with the publication of financial results of the aluminum giant Alcoa, whose results pleased investors after the end of the trading session. Today, investors will be watching the data on the index of small business optimism (12:30 GMT) and the number of open vacancies in the US (15:00 GMT). The course of trading will also be influenced by the corporate reporting. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the US stock market.

Major stock indexes in Europe showed a positive trend amid growing Greek indexes. Analysts are trying to assess the impact and the likelihood of a Greek exit from the Eurozone. Let us remind that the parliamentary elections in Greece are scheduled for January 25 and may lead radical left alliance Syriza to the power. The OECD has published a report according to which the growth rates are falling in Europe. Today is not expected the publication of important macroeconomic data in the euro area and the course of trading will be affected by the speculations about the launch of quantitative easing after the ECB meeting on January 22, and the political crisis in Greece. We forecast drop in European stock markets in the medium term.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed mixed trends. Thus, the Japanese index was under the pressure of strengthening yen after the publication of data on the balance of payments surplus which totaled 0.91 trillion against the expected 0.69 trillion. At the same time, the data on China's trade surplus supported the investors. Chinese exports in December rose by 9.7% compared to the same period of last year, while imports fell by 2.4%. Analysts continue to monitor the situation with the growth of industry in China, which continues to slow. We maintain our medium-term negative medium-term outlook for the stock markets in the region due to the weak macroeconomic indicators.

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