13.02.2015 - Data on GDP growth in the euro area will be in the center of attention of the market
The price of euro showed an increase on the background of information on granting additional liquidity to Greece in the near future, as well as in connection with the statistics on retail sales in the US, which in January showed a decline of 0.8%, against an expected fall of 0.4%. It is worth noting the positive effect of the decision on a cease-fire in Ukraine, but the situation remains tense and may change. The focus of investors will again be on the Greek crisis. Among macroeconomic statistics we should pay attention to the preliminary data on the GDP of France (6:30 GMT), Germany (07:00 GMT), Italy (09:00 GMT) and the Eurozone (10:00 GMT) for the 4th quarter. The course of trading will be influenced by the statistics on the trade balance of the Eurozone (10:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (15: 0 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro in relation to the Greek crisis and the start of quantitative easing in the euro area, but today we can see continued price growth.
The price of the British pound strengthened yesterday following a statement of the Bank of England on intention to raise interest rates next year. Growth forecast for this year has been left at the level of 2.9%, in line with the previous forecast. At the same time in 2016 is expected the increase by 2.9% and in 2017 by 2.7%. Today, the course of trading will be influenced by the movement of the euro, as well as statistics on the volume of production in the construction sector in the UK (09:30 GMT). We expect continued growth in the near future and reaching the psychologically important level of 1.55. Despite this, our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the background of claims that some members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan consider additional measures to mitigate the monetary policy of the country counterproductive. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar amid weak statistics on retail sales, which fell by 0.8% resulted in a rapid appreciation of the yen. At the moment, there is a possibility of the price correction. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen due to the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.
The price of the Australian dollar corrected upwards after a dip caused by the deterioration on the labor market in Australia, where unemployment has risen to 6.4% in January, which is 0.3% less than in December. It is worth noting that the rise in prices was also supported by the increase in prices of commodities. On Monday, the course of trading will depend on the data on lending in China. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the Australian currency.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to rise against the background of improving the situation on commodity markets and the correction of the Australian dollar. At the moment, there is a possibility of continuing upward movement to the psychologically important level of 0.7500. Despite the current upward movement, which is also supported by the fall of the US dollar, we maintain a medium-term negative view on the New Zealand dollar in relation to the country's trade deficit and weak data from China, which is the main importer of New Zealand's goods.