13.03.2015 - Retail sales in the US unexpectedly declined

The price of euro continued to decline after some correction. The reason for the short-term growth of price yesterday were technical factors, as well as the negative statistics on retail sales in the United States. Thus, the index fell by 0.6%, compared with an expected growth of 0.3%. This decrease is due to poor weather conditions in some regions of the country, as well as caution households. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on producer price index in the US (12:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.

The price of the British pound continued to fall after the statements of the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney. In his speech, Mr. Carney noted that the regulator may raise interest rates at a slower pace than expected earlier in case of continued low inflation in the world. We recall that analysts predicted the beginning of a rate hike at the beginning of 2016. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on production in the construction sector of the country. We expect a further drop of the British pound in the near future.

The price of the Japanese yen fell yesterday after a slight strengthening amid the weakening US dollar resumed its fall due to the stronger labor market data in the United States. In addition, today was published statistics on industrial production in the country in January. Thus, the index rose by 3.7% against the previous estimate of 4.0% growth. Loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expectation of the Fed's monetary tightening have led to further decline of the yen against the US dollar. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen.

The price of the Australian dollar after the strong correction resumed falling. We recall that the reason for the recent growth has been strong data on reduced unemployment in the country at 0.1% in February to 6.3%. At the same time, the Australian currency quotes are under the pressure of a number of factors including the decline in investment, the deterioration of the trade balance, the slowdown in China's industry and reduction of Chinese imports. We continue to recommend holding short positions on the Australian dollar and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.

The price of the New Zealand dollar was unable to continue to grow within the correction and after some consolidation continued to decline. In case of continuation of the current downward trend, quotations may return to a local minimum. Further price movement will depend on the dynamics of prices for dairy products, the price of the Australian dollar and the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Despite the improvement in the trade balance and steady GDP growth, we expect a price drop of the New Zealand dollar in the near future.

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