13.04.2015 - Data on China's trade surplus has led to a drop in the Australian dollar
The price of euro continues to fall against the background of uncertainty about the negotiations between Greece and creditors on restructuring the country's debt. It is worth noting that the main reason for the decrease in quotations of euro remains a program of quantitative easing in the euro area and the expectation of raising interest rates of the Fed this year. Today, investors' activity will be reduced in the absence of important macroeconomic data and the expectation of the press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a drop in prices in the near future.
The price of the British pound continued to decline following the euro, as well as in connection with the strengthening of the US dollar. It should be noted the negative impact of statistics on industrial production in February, according to which the figure rose to 0.1%, against an expected increase of 0.3%. Today, the decline may stop amid the absence of important macroeconomic data and due to the expected publication of data on inflation tomorrow. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative due to the negative impact of the fall of the euro and the US dollar strengthening.
The price of the Japanese yen continues to gradually decline against the strengthening of the US dollar and the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. It is worth noting that the volume of domestic orders for engineering products in Japan in February fell by 0.4%, against an expected fall of 2.6%, which supported the Japanese currency, but the growth of the producer price index was 0.7% in March, that is 0.3% better than the forecast of analysts pointed to correct current monetary policy policy. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen, and see no reason to change the current trend in the near future.
The price of the Australian dollar fell sharply after the publication of statistics on the trade balance of China, which surplus in March was 3.1 billion, compared with an expected 43.4 billion. It should be noted that imports decreased by 12.7% and exports by 15.0%. We recall that China is a major buyer of Australian products. In addition, these statistics has a negative impact on commodity prices. In connection with this statistics, as well as on the background of weak statistics on the labor market of the country, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar after a long consolidation showed a strong fall, which was caused by the negative statistics from China and falling Australian dollar. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business confidence in New Zealand (22:00 GMT). At the moment, we see no reason for the resumption of growth of quotations of the New Zealand dollar and expect a continuation of the downward price movement in the near future.