13.04.2016 - Commodity currencies continued to rise
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a slight decrease against the US dollar, but continues to be near the important level of 1.1400. Investors took profits prior to publication of statistics on retail sales in the United States (12:30 GMT). In addition, investor sentiment will affect the data on the volume of industrial production in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and the producer price index in the US (12:30 GMT). Tomorrow the course of trading will affect the data on the consumer price index in the euro area and the United States. We expect a strong movement of the euro price in the near future, after the current consolidation. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the divergence in monetary policy parameters.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose against the background of the positive impact of the index of consumer prices in the country, which rose to its highest level since December 2014, against a background of rising prices on airline tickets in connection with the celebration of Easter. It is worth noting that the decrease in the effect of the fall in oil prices will pushes inflation upwards, which will allow the Bank of England to raise rates, but such scenario is possible only in case of saving the country in the EU after the referendum on 23 June. Our outlook on the British pound in the coming months remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen fell slightly against the background of positive statistics from China and rising oil prices, which reduces the demand for defensive assets. It is worth noting that this increased interest in defensive assets has led to a significant yen strengthening. It should be noted that the Japanese authorities intend to deal with an unreasonable increase in the yen amid speculation that is also the reason for the weakening of the yen price. In case of continued weakening, momentum will grow against the background of the closing positions. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, but we do not rule out growth in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar today has shown steady growth, which contributed to the rise in oil prices and other commodities, as well as the positive statistics from China, where exports rose by 11.5% against the forecast of growth by 8.5% compared with the same period last year . Previously, the figure was below zero for 8 consecutive months. Weak data on the index of consumer confidence in Australia, which fell to -4.0% in April, against 2.2% in March, could not change the positive sentiment on the market. Prospects for the Australian currency have improved, but the potential for further growth is limited and we are waiting for the continuation of negative dynamics in the coming months.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed growth against the backdrop of rising prices for commodities and positive news from China. Tonight (22:30 GMT) in the country will be published news on the index of business confidence in the manufacturing sector, and on Friday is possible the strong price movement after the publication of reports on GDP and industrial production in China. The potential of this growth is limited and we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.