13.05.2015 - Markets are waiting for the GDP data from the euro area and US retail sales
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed growth against the background of the payment by Greece on the IMF loan. It is worth noting that the ministers of finance and economy continue negotiations with Greek Finance Minister Yannis Varufakis, but we see the lack of progress in resolving the Greek debt crisis. The US dollar weakened due to reduced number of job openings in the United States to 4.99 million against the expected 5.16 million. Fed officials continue to note the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates at any meeting of the regulator. This step will lead to the growth of the US currency and stock markets may decline in respond. Today, it is worth paying attention to statistics on industrial production and the preliminary data on GDP growth in the euro area in the first quarter of this year (09:00 GMT). The US will release a report on retail sales in the country (12:30 GMT), which will also increase market volatility. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to rise after the publication of unexpectedly strong statistics on industrial production. Thus, the volume of industrial production in the country in March increased by 0.5%. Analysts had expected no changes. Today, the price volatility will remain high due to the publication of data on the labor market in the country (8:30 GMT), the quarterly report of the Bank of England on inflation and in connection with the statement of the head of the Bank of England (09:30 GMT). Rising prices may continue in the near future to the psychologically important level of 1.60.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened after the publication of statistics on the balance of payments. The surplus in March was 207 trillion yen, against the forecast of 1.34 trillion and the previous value0.64 trillion. In addition, an index assessing the current economic situation in Japan Eco Watchers in April was 53.6, which is 1.5 better than expected. Today, the growth of trading will be affected by the news on retail sales in the United States. Our medium-term outlook for the Japanese yen remains negative due to the expectation of monetary tightening in the US and a soft policy of the Bank of Japan.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed moderate growth amid weakening of the US currency. To continue the growth and overcome the psychologically important level of 0.80, the price needs new incentives. It should be noted that industrial production in China showed an increase of 5.9% for the year, which once again points to a growth slowdown in the industry and the economy as a whole. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar due to the weak performance of the labor market and low prices for iron ore.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has corrected upwards but could not continue the upward movement due to the tightening of mortgage lending rules in the country's largest city of Auckland where price growth for the year was 16.9% in March. The RBNZ wary of the risks associated with the overheating of the housing market. We maintain a negative outlook for the New Zealand dollar, and recommend holding short positions.