13.05.2015 - Statistics on oil will lead to higher volatility in the price of oil
The price of gold continues to consolidate near the levels of the previous trading session due to the uncertainty regarding the Greek crisis. Thus, the country's negotiations with the creditors do not give results, but at the same time, the country has made the next payment on the IMF loan. It is worth noting that the increase in bond yields in Europe and the United States reduces the attractiveness of investing in gold. Demand from Asian consumers remains low. Today is forecasted the growth of traders activity after the publication of data on retail sales in the US (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, but in the near future quotes will likely continue to consolidate about levels of 1170-1220 dollars per troy ounce.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil has continued to increase due to the anticipation of the publication of statistics on oil inventories in the US (14:30 GMT). At the moment, we see decline in production of shale oil in the United States that is the main reason for the rise in oil prices. At the same time, oversupply of oil on the market is about 2 million barrels per day, and the price above $ 60 a barrel can lead to a resumption of growth in production of shale oil in the United States. Industrial production growth in China slowed to 5.9%, which is 0.2% worse than expected. In addition, a negative for oil prices will be the lifting of sanctions against Iraq, which will increase the imbalance of supply and demand on the market. Therefore, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the oil and recommend to wait for a sell signal.