13.05.2016 - Traders are waiting for statistics on retail sales in the US

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline against the US dollar despite weak data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US, which has grown to 294 million, against the previous figure 274 thousand. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on German GDP (06:00 GMT), the euro area GDP (09:00 GMT), as well as retail sales in the US (12:30 GMT), which is one of the main macroeconomic indicators for assess of the state of the economy. We forecast a decline in the euro against the US dollar in the medium term and expect to see a strong increase in volatility.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate within a narrow range in anticipation of the new signals. Thus, yesterday, was decided to leave the country's monetary policy settings unchanged. Today will be published statistics on the volume of production in the construction sector of the UK (08:30 GMT), but the main impact on the dynamics of trading will have news from the US. We maintain a negative outlook for the next week due to the possibility of speculation growth regarding the possible exit of the UK from the European Union.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen after the recent decline, showed an increase today, despite the publication of weak statistics on the tertiary index of business activity in Japan's service sector, which in March was -0.7% vs. expected -0.2%. Today we can see an increase in volatility after the release of US retail sales report. It should be noted that the head of the Bank of Japan in his speech defended the negative interest rates, and we do not rule out additional stimulus steps by the central Bank of Japan. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative due to the difference in interest rates of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to fall after correction, which is due to the recent decline in interest rates and the Reserve Bank of Australia and lowering forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the country. Next week will be published data on the labor market in the country and will be released the statistics on industrial production in China at the weekend, which is the main trading partner of Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, and the decline may be accelerated in case of correction on commodity markets.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar fell after the publication of weak statistics on retail sales in the country, which increased by 0.8% in the 1st quarter, which was 0.2% worse than analysts' forecasts. The annualized growth rate was 4.8%, which is 0.5% less than the previous value. According to our estimates, the probability of a decrease in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the predicted correction in commodity markets will lead to further fall in the price of the local currency of New Zealand in the medium term.

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