13.05.2016 - Volatility on the markets may rise today
American stock indexes finished trading near the previous close levels amid expectations of the publication of today's report on retail sales in the country (12:30 GMT), which can lead to a strong movement on the market. It should be noted that Apple's stock drop that negatively influences the entire technology sector. According to statistics on the US labor market, the number of initial unemployment claims totaled 294 thousand, against 274 thousand previously. According to our estimates, the probability of a drop on the US markets in the coming months is increasing and as a catalyst for the sharp decline may be a significant correction in commodity markets.
European stock indexes are down today. Investors fixed position before the long weekend in Germany and France. Today trading will affect the data on GDP growth in Germany, which was 0.7% in the 1st quarter, which is 0.4% more than the previous figure. Eurozone economy grew by 0.5% in the 1st quarter, which is 0.1% less than the forecast of analysts. Given the uncertainty about the future growth prospects for the US stock markets and the likely correction in the commodity markets, we expect the negative dynamics of the markets in the region in the near future, but maintain a medium-term positive outlook.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific show a decline against the background of the negative influence of Western markets. It should be noted that the weakening of the yen against the US dollar had a positive impact on the course of trading in Japan, but the negative sentiment intensified towards the end of the trading session. Strong influence on the course of trading in the region will have the data on industrial production and retail sales in China, which will be published at the weekend. The Australian market is still highly dependent on the dynamics of prices for commodities. We expect growth in the medium term, but in the near future may see a correction.