13.07.2015 - Markets are waiting for the vote of the Greek Parliament on reforms
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed no strong movement after the weekend due to the lack of results of the meeting of the Eurogroup on the Greek question. So, at a meeting was proposed to provide the country 82-86 billion euros, as well as the temporary exit of the country from the euro zone. As a result, it was decided to provide 86 billion euros in the third anti-crisis program, if adopted six laws on reforms in Greece by 14 July. Investors did not rush to accumulate positions and wait for the vote on the reforms in Greece. Today, little impact on the course of trading will have publishing of a report on the US federal budget. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative, but in the coming days may increase in case of an agreement on reforms in Greece.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized earlier in the week about the important level of 1.55 after strong growth on Friday, which was caused by unexpectedly strong data on the trade balance of the country, the deficit of which reduced to 8.0 billion vs. anticipated 9.7 billion. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the report of the Bank of England on the state of the UK credit market (8:30 GMT). The central event of the week will be the release of statistics on the labor market of the country on Wednesday. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the British Pound and are waiting for new signal for opening positions.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to move around the previous close. Investors are waiting for a decision on Greece which is possible in the first half of this week. Today has been published statistics on the volume of industrial production in Japan, which in May fell by 2.1%, in line with analysts' forecasts. Investors are waiting for the decision of the Greek crisis, which will lead to a decrease in demand for defensive assets and will reduce the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the expectation of monetary tightening in the United States until the end of the year and a soft policy of the Bank of Japan.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is consolidating near the levels of the last week's close. Investors monitor the statistics on China's trade balance surplus which totaled 45.6 billion compared to the forecast of 55.7 billion. It is worth noting the growth of exports by 2.8% and imports falling by 6.1%. The weakening of China's economic growth has negative impact on the prices of raw materials and the volume of Australian exports. Tomorrow, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business sentiment in Australia, but the main event that will affect the course of trading will be the release of statistics on the Chinese economy on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a slight increase in the begging of the week, but investors are still not in a hurry to close short positions. After a sharp fall, the price stabilized around current levels and the potential of fall significantly decreased, but at the same time, we see no reason to change the current negative trend to the negative. We expect a decrease in prices in the medium term due to the expected weakening of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the low prices for the dairy products.