13.09.2016 - Investors fear uncertainty
Yesterday, US stock indexes have shown growth and offset some of the losses caused by speculation onthe probable earlier raising interest rates of the Fed. In addition, the market supported the recovery in oil prices. Today, oil drop has resumed. It should be noted that traders are waiting for the publication of important statistics on retail sales on Thursday and CPI on Friday, which will greatly affect the decision of the Fed on monetary policy, which will be published on 21 September. Today, little impact on the course of trading will have news on the index of optimism in the US small business (10:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.
Major stock indexes in Europe are consolidated after yesterday's growth yesterday that was caused by speculation on further steps of the Fed on monetary policy. The employment rate in the euro area grew by 0.4% in the second quarter, which is two times more than the forecast. In addition, the index of business confidence in the euro area rose to 5.4 vs. expected 6.7 and the previous value of 4.7. The consumer price index in the UK remained at 0.6% in August against the forecast of 0.7%. This fact increases the probability of further easing of monetary policy of the Bank of England. We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook for European indices.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed minimal change today, despite the publication of important statistics from China. Thus, the volume of industrial production in August rose by 6.3% compared with the same period last year, which is 0.3% more than in July. At the same time, retail sales growth accelerated to 10.6% vs. predicted 10.2%. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the index of consumer confidence in Australia and the industrial production in Japan, but the main impact on the dynamics of trading will have data from the US that will affect investors' expectations regarding the Fed tightenimg monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.