13.10.2016 - Weak data from China boosted demand for gold

The price of gold showed growth afterin China published weak data on the trade balance of the country, the surplus of which in September was 42.0 billion dollars against forecasted 53.1 billion dollars. The fall of exports by 10.0% for the year increased concerns about the state's second-largest economy in the world, which has led to increased investors’ interest in defensive assets. The growth of gold is constrained by the expectations of the Fed raising interest rates in December, which is negative for gold. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the news on retail sales in the US, which will lead to increased volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, and the potential reduction in the near future is low.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil showed decline after OPEC published the report, according to which the volume of oil production in the countries of the cartel rose to 33.39 million barrels per day. It is worth noting that earlier was reported that oil production in Russia increased to 11.1 million barrels. Weak export data in China have increased concerns about the state of the economy in the second largest oil consumer in the world after the United States. Today, the focus will be on the US statistics on oil inventories (15:00 GMT). According to our estimates, the execution of an agreement to reduce the volume of oil production in OPEC is unlikely, and we expect a drop in oil prices after a strong growth in the previous weeks.

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