13.10.2016 - Weak data on exports in China have led to a decrease in the Australian dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline against the US dollar after have been published minutes of the previous meeting of the US Federal Reserve, according to which the opinions of the Federal Open Market Committee members on the timing of interest rate increases are divided. Today will be published data on initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT), but investors will expect tomorrow's publication of important data on US retail sales. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we expect further reduction in prices in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to decline after the recent rebound. The dynamics will continue to be negatively affected by the expectations of the consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU and calls from French officials to conduct tough negotiations on this issue. Today, the focus of investors will be on the Bank of England's monetary policy decision (11:00 GMT), which will lead to increased volatility. We still expect a decrease in quotations in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen corrected upwards after the recent weakening caused by the growth of the US dollar and speculation about further monetary easing in Japan early next year, which is negatively displayed on the price of the yen. It is noteworthy that the tertiary index of business activity in Japan showed zero growth against the expected decline by 0.2%. At the moment, the strengthening of the yen is only possible within the correction and support for growth may be increased demand for defensive assets amid falling stock markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued its negative trend due to the strengthening US currency, as well as by the negative statistics on China's trade surplus, which is the main buyer of Australian exports. Thus, the country's trade surplus amounted to 42.0 billion dollars in September, which is significantly worse than the forecast of 53.1 billion dollars. It should be noted that for the year the volume of exports in the country decreased by 10.0% compared with a decrease of 2.8% previously. We expect a further fall in the price of the Australian dollar and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar continues to gradually decline against the US dollar. The negative for the currency remains the strengthening of the US currency, low prices for dairy products, which is a key export group, as well as the preservation of the probability reducing the RBNZ interest rate to 2.00% to 1.75% by the end of the year. The fall of the Australian dollar and news on the reduction in exports to China also lead to price reduction. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and after the current consolidation, we expect to see increased volatility.