13.11.2015 - Investors are waiting for the retail sales data
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose against the background of the Fed representatives rhetoric about the negative impact of the strong dollar on exports and US inflation. At the same time ECB President Mario Draghi said about the revision of the parameters of the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance and the Eurozone’s GDP (10:00 GMT). The central event of the day today will be the publication of statistics on retail sales in the US (13:30 GMT). At the moment, we see price consolidation after which the fall is likely to continue. The focus of investors remain on the increase in interest rates of the Fed in December. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized after a confident upward correction in recent days due to fixing position and a strong labor market statistics in the UK. Today, the price movement of the British pound will depend on the statistics on the volume of production in the construction sector of the United Kingdom (09:30 GMT) and the dynamics of the US dollar. Volatility today will grow. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to rise gradually against the US dollar on a background of positive statistics on the volume of industrial production in Japan, which rose in September by 1.1%, vs. expected 1.0%. At the same time, yesterday's comments from the Fed regarding the negative impact of the strong dollar, has led to an increase of the Japanese yen. On Monday will be published important data on the growth of Japan's GDP in the third quarter, that will lead to a strong price movement. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar failed to continue yesterday's strong growth caused by the publication of statistics on the unemployment rate in the country, which fell by 0.3% in October to 5.9%. Falling commodity prices helped to stop the growth of quotations. In the near future we may see the resumption of the negative dynamics of prices and maintain the medium-term negative outlook. It is also recommended to keep the short positions with the potential of fall to 0.69 and 0.68.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate in the absence of new drivers for the movement in either direction. The likely strengthening of the dollar and the weakness on the market of raw materials will continue to put pressure on the quotation of the currency. At the same time, the weak inflation in the country stimulates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary easing. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar is a negative and we recommend holding short positions.