13.11.2015 - Oil fell due to rising inventories in the US
The price of gold yesterday showed growth of volatility against the background of Fed officials’ statements on the need to raise interest rates of the Fed, but at the same time, Fed representatives noted the negative impact of the strong dollar on exports and inflation. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December, is at about 70%, but according to our estimates, such a scenario is already partially taken into account in pricing. Today, the dynamics will affect news on retail sales in America (13:30 GMT). We are waiting for new signals to open the position.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil showed a decline yesterday after the publication of statistics on oil reserves in the United States, which last week increased by 4.2 million barrels compared to the average forecast of experts at the level of 0.8 million barrels per day. This growth pointed on oversupply in the market of America, despite the increase in refinery utilization. The slowdown in the Chinese industry to 5.6% in October, also contributes to the fall in prices for black gold. After a sharp fall we can see the correction of prices, but negative medium-term outlook remains unchanged with the target of around 40 dollars per barrel of oil.