Major stock indexes in America showed mixed results at the end of the trading session. The reason for stopping the growth has become the technical need for correction. Yesterday was published a report on the U.S. federal budget balance, according to which the budget deficit in January was $ 10.4 billion, analysts expected the increase to $ 16.4 billion. The deficit of 680.28 billion in 2013 fiscal year was more than a third less than the deficit of the previous year. Experts expect that in 2014 the deficit will be over 514 billion dollars.
The price of euro has corrected within the descending channel on statements of Benoit Kerre, a member of the ECB Governing Council, regarding the possibility of implementation of negative interest rates on deposits. The focus today will be on the ECB monthly report (09:00 GMT), as well as data from the United States on the number of unemployment claims, retail sales (13:30 GMT) and business inventories (15:00 GMT ). At 15:30 GMT, we should pay attention to the speech of the Fed chief Janet Yellen.
The British pound has shown a steady growth on the background of changing future plans on the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Thus, it was stated that interest rates will remain at 0.5% during the next year or more, even if the unemployment rate will decrease below 7.0%, which is expected in Q1 2014. After a strong growth, we expect the upward movement to pause with a possible slight correction.
The price of USD/JPY has corrected to a strong level 102.00. The reason for the strengthening of the yen was a statement by a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, who noted that the next step towards monetary easing may bring more harm than benefit, and mentioned the need for structural reforms in the economy.
Australian dollar showed a strong decline and returned to the descending channel. The reason for the sale was the data on the labor market, where unemployment in January increased by 0.2% to 6.0%, while the number of employed decreased by 3.7 thousand. We remain a negative outlook on the Australian dollar. After reaching 101.00 per barrel the price of Light Sweet crude oil contract began to decline, despite the decrease in inventories of gasoline and distillates in the U.S. At the same time, crude oil inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels, compared with an expected growth by 2.5 million. The report of the OPEC on the growth of oil consumption in the world by 50 thousand to 1.1 million barrels per day was unable to keep prices from correction. Among the risks for the growth of oil consumption experts in OPEC called the budget problems in Latin America and Asia.
The price of gold has reached a three-month high, but failed to overcome the upper limit of the upward channel and began to correct. Gold prices may reach the level of 1300, but the need for correction is obvious, moreover the demand for metal in China has dropped significantly, and the prospects of investing in risky assets remain sufficiently attractive. We do not expect a decline in gold prices lower than 1200, but at the moment there are no fundamental reasons for overcoming the level of $ 1300 per troy ounce.