13.08.2014 - Analysts' forecasts are deteriorating

American stock indexes fell slightly yesterday on geopolitical risks related to the situation in Gaza, Iraq, and especially in Ukraine. Investors fear a direct military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the small business optimism index increased by 0.7 to 95.7, but did not meet analysts' forecasts. The number of vacancies in June rose to 4.67 million. Compared with an expected growth to 4.74 million. Today, the central event of the day will be the publication of the report on retail sales in the United States (12:30 GMT). We forecast decline of the American stock indexes in the medium term.

European markets continue to decline due to the negative geopolitical background. Weak data on the index of business confidence of the Eurozone, which fell to 23.7 in August, against 48.1 in July. Today, the focus will be on publication of the report on industrial production in Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and tomorrow will be released preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone. Weak macroeconomic indicators and Ukrainian crisis contribute to a further drop in European markets. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Eurozone markets.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region have not changed. In the minutes of the Bank of Japan was stated about the negative effects of raising the sales tax, which in the opinion of the Bank of Japan will decline in the future. In addition in protocols were noted geopolitical risks and problems in the construction sector in China. In China, the statistics did not meet analysts' expectations. Thus, growth of the industry was 9.0%, of retail sales - 12.2%, of the volume of investments in capital assets - 17.0%. Mining companies in Australia today were also decreasing after yesterday's growth. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the stock markets in the region.

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