14.01.2015 - The number of vacancies in the United States was the highest in 14 years
The price of euro fell yesterday and is trading near a nine-year low. Catalyst for a drop in prices yesterday was the statement by the representative of the ECB Kere about the probability of the decision to start the program of quantitative easing of the ECB next week. In addition, Mr. Kere stated that there are no plans to restructure Greece's debts. Strengthening of the dollar after the data on the index of small business optimism in the United States, which rose to its highest level in eight years - 100.4, as well as data on the growth of the number of vacancies to 4,972 million, which is a record for 14 years. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on industrial production in the euro area in November (10:00 GMT), US retail sales (1330 GMT) and the publication of the Beige Book (19:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
The price of the British pound after attempting to reduce returned to previous levels and continues to consolidate. The reason for the weakening of the pound yesterday became strong data from the US. The main reason for the fall of the British currency was the data on inflation in the country, which has fallen to its lowest level since May 2000 - 0.5% in December, compared to 1.0% in November. The reason for the sharp drop in the consumer price index was the drop in fuel prices. Today the news on the index of leading economic indicators (10:00 GMT), may slightly affect the course of trading. Medium-term dynamics remains negative and we expect strong price movement in the near future.
The price of the yen continues to rise against the background of increased interest in defensive assets, due to the fall in commodity prices and the political crisis in Greece, which could be negatively displayed on the financial stability in the euro area. Despite the current increase in prices of the Japanese currency, the soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the steady increase in the US dollar continue to put pressure on the price of the Japanese currency in the medium term. Today have been published the data on orders for machinery equipment which growth slowed to 33.8% in December, versus 36.6% in November. According to our estimates, the price of the yen may begin to correct in the near future and we keep the medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen.
The Australian dollar declined further following the US dollar strengthening against the background positive macroeconomic data, as well as due to the fall in commodity prices. Thus, copper reached its lowest levels since 2009. At the same time, the price of iron ore remains low and investors fear the negative impact of the crisis in the construction sector of China on the amount of Australian exports. Tomorrow we expect increased volatility due to the release of data on the labor market in Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
The New Zealand dollar continued its decline following the Australian currency and commodity prices. It should be noted the negative impact of prices for dairy products and the trade deficit of the country. At the moment, there is no reason to talk about the increase in prices of the New Zealand currency. We recommend holding short positions and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.