14.01.2016 - Fears of investors maintain interest in the Japanese yen
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro could not continue to decline, and started to correct upwards due to technical factors, as well as the speech of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston chairman Eric Rosengren, in which he noted the need to raise short-term interest rates at small pace, but stressed that the increase 3-4 times will be adequate. Weak statistics on the decline in industrial production in the euro area by 0.7% in November, could not greatly affect the course of trading. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (13:30 GMT) and the publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the ECB (12:30 GMT). We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative view.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound after a minor correction resumed its decline and may continue it in the near future due to the weak statistics on industrial production in the country and the general negative attitude of investors to the British pound in relation to the risk of the country's exit from the EU after the referendum that will be held in 2016- 2017. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the rhetoric of the Bank of England, after the decision on interest rates (12:00 GMT). After a significant drop, we can see a price correction, but our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the background of reduction of risk appetite amid falling US equity markets and lower oil prices. The situation in China is still unstable. It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan announced its readiness to use additional measures to stimulate inflation in the country. The volume of orders for engineering equipment in Japan in December fell by 25.8% against the same period of 2014. The potential for strengthening of the yen dropped significantly and we are waiting for the fall of the price of the yen in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price showed a decrease of the Australian dollar against the backdrop of negative sentiment, due to the uncertain situation in China, where previously was reduced the price of the yuan and stock markets plummeted. It should be noted that the data on the labor market in the country was not able to change the negative sentiment due to falling commodity prices. Thus, the unemployment rate remained at 5.8%, which is 0.1% better than expected. The number of employed fell by 1 thousand. Today we can see a small correction after sharp fall, but the medium-term negative outlook remains unchanged.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to fall after some consolidation. The reason for the decline was the negative external background related to investors' concerns about the future development of the situation in China. Given the low prices for dairy products, the weak data on the trade balance and the possible reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, we expect continuation of falling prices of the New Zealand dollar.