14.03.2016 - The price of oil is likely to resume the fall

The price of gold fell at the start of the week due to the lack of new incentives for the continued growth. It is worth noting that the weak data from China was not able to increase the demand for defensive assets. Thus, the volume of industrial production in China in January-February increased by 5.4% compared with the same period last year, which is worse than the forecast of 5.6% and the previous value of 5.9%. Investors are in no hurry with active operations in connection with the publication of the expectation the Fed’s statement on monetary policy on Wednesday, which can greatly affect the mood of investors on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates, which will lead to a decrease in gold. Tomorrow, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on US retail sales. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the signal to sell.

The price of futures for Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate near the important level of 40 dollars per barrel, after earlier showed a strong upward movement due to the expected decline in US oil production and speculation on a possible consensus in negotiations of major oil producers to reduce oil production. On the other hand, Iran is not going to freeze the volumes of oil production at the level of January or at the current levels and continues to increase capacity. In connection with the saving of oversupply and deteriorating forecasts for oil demand growth this year, we keep a medium-term negative outlook, and expect the resumption of the fall of prices in the near future.

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