14.04.2016 - Demand for riskier assets increased against the background of data from China
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell against the US dollar on the background of improved sentiment in the world that has been associated with positive data on exports in China, as well as rising oil prices, which increased interest in risky assets. It is worth noting that the weak data on US retail sales, which fell by 0.3% in March against the forecast of growth by 0.1%, failed to change investor sentiment. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT) and the US (12:30 GMT). Inflation in the US is a strong incentive for the Fed raising interest rates this year and rise in oil prices is a driver of inflation. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro, and the current decline is likely to continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell after recent gains. The reasons for the negative dynamics of prices has become the strengthening of the US dollar and renewed speculations about the country's exit from the European Union. According to surveys, the number of people that support the exit from the EU grew to 45% from 42% previously. Today, the focus will be on the news from the Bank of England on monetary policy. According to our forecasts, the price of the British currency may continue to consolidate in the near future after the completion of which is likely to continue negative dynamics in the coming months.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US dollar amid increasing demand for risky assets and reduction of concerns about the situation with the growth of China's economy, after publication of positive data on exports in the world's second largest economy. Tomorrow the yen dynamics will also affect the news from China, as well as statistics on the volume of industrial production in Japan. Reducing the demand for defensive assets like the yen may be the main reason for reducing the price of the Japanese currency in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell against the background of strong growth after fixation of positions, correction of oil prices and the US dollar growth, but after a decline at the beginning of the Asian session, was able to recover some lost ground after the release of a report on the labor market in the country. Thus, the unemployment rate in Australia fell to 5.7%, which is 0.2% better than the forecast and 0.1% more than the previous figure. At the same time, the employment rate increased by 26.1 thousand vs. expected 18.6 thousand. Tomorrow is forecasted the increased volatility following the publication of the report on GDP and industrial production in China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar was unable to continue the upward movement and started to correct sharply on the background of the dollar strengthening, as well as in connection with the publication of a weak statistics on the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand, which fell to 54.7 in March from 55.9 in February. The current decline may continue in the near future and we expect increased volatility tomorrow after the publication of statistics on the Chinese economy.