14.04.2016 - Oil is likely to resume after the fall meeting of the oil producers in China

The price of gold continued to fall against the backdrop of a number of important factors. Thus. the US dollar started to grow after a long consolidation on the background of increasing interest in risky assets. The reason for the growth of optimism about the global economy has become the news for export growth in China by 11.5% in March compared to the same period last year. It is worth noting that the increase in silver prices points to a shift of investor interest in the metal compared to gold and this dynamics may continue soon. We expect increased volatility tomorrow after the publication of statistics on GDP and industrial production in China, and today will be published statistics on the consumer price index in the US (12:30 GMT), the growth of which will lead to an increased likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in June, which is negative for gold. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil after strong growth in previous weeks started to correct after the publication of a report on oil inventories in the United States, which last week rose by 6.6 million barrels against the forecast increase of 0.9 million barrels. Saudi Arabia excludes the possibility of a reduction in oil production, but Iran refused to participate in the meeting of representatives of a number of major oil producers, which will be held this Sunday. We still expect a drop in oil prices after this meeting and maintain the medium-term negative outlook with the targets of 36 and 33 dollars per barrel.

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