14.05.2015 - Data on retail sales in the US have led to the fall of the dollar

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed growth amid weakening US dollar after the publication of statistics on retail sales, which disappointed investors. In April figure has not changed, despite the expected increase of 0.3%. At the same time, retail sales excluding automotive fuel and cars were up 0.2%. GDP growth in the euro area totaled 0.4% in the first quarter, which was 0.1% better than the previous quarter and by 0.1% worse than analysts' forecasts. Industrial output in the euro area fell in March by 0.3%, against expected growth of 0.1%. Today, the dynamics of prices will depend on the statistics on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits and the index of producer prices in the US (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the impact of quantitative easing in the Eurozone.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to rise against the background of the weakening US dollar, despite the report of the Bank of England on inflation. Thus, the Bank of England lowered its growth forecast for the UK economy this year to 2.5% from 2.9% and in 2016 to 2.6%, against 2.9%. The regulator also reiterated that the next step will be raising interest rates, which is expected in the second quarter of 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 0.1% in March to 5.5%. According to our forecasts, the positive price dynamics will continue in the near future and quotations will reach the level of 1.60, and then can change the negative trend.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen fell sharply against the background of weak statistics on retail sales in the US, which resulted in quotations of the American currency that fell against other major currencies. The lack of growth in retail sales in the US has led to a drop in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at its meeting in June. The course of trading today will be affected by the data on the volume of orders for engineering equipment products in Japan (06:00 GMT) and statistics on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the weakness of growth in the Japanese economy and a soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to rise against the backdrop of the fall of the US dollar. Weak statistics on industrial production in China, the growth of which slowed to 5.9% in April, could not change the positive sentiment. Rising prices for the iron ore, which is the main export item of the country also supports the Australian dollar. We expect a further increase in prices in the near future, but maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed steady growth due to the fall of the US dollar. On the other hand support for the New Zealand dollar was the news on the growth of retail sales in the country by 2.7% in the first quarter, compared with 1.9% in the previous period. Strong upward momentum is also explained by the fixation of short positions after a steady fall in the price last week. We expect a drop in prices in the near future within the correction.

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