The price of gold showed a steady growth amid falling US dollar. The reason for the fall of the dollar has become the weak data on US retail sales, which in April showed no growth. Analysts had forecasted an increase by 0.3%. This fact has led to a drop in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates. Demand for gold in Asia remained weak. In case of the start of a strong correction on the stock markets, interest in gold will rise. Investors continue to follow the negotiation process concerning the restructuring of Greek debt. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, but to continue the growth above the strong level of 1220 dollars per ounce, we need new incentives.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil fell despite the weakening of the US dollar, and a reduction in US oil inventories by 2.2 million barrels last week, against an expected decline of 0.1 million barrels per day. At the same time, the International Energy Agency published a report according to which the production of shale oil in the US will decrease, but will remain at a stable level beyond of the North America. Despite the current decline in inventories, rising oil prices in recent months was unreasonable amid the excess of oil by 1.9-2.0 million barrels per day. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the signal to open short positions.