14.07.2015 - Traders are waiting for the statistics on retail sales in the US
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a sharp decline against the background of the turning the focus of the market towards a possible increase in interest rates by the Fed this year. Earlier, the Eurogroup and Greece reached an agreement on providing country with the third financial aid package under which the country will receive about 86 billion euros. For this, the Greek parliament needs to vote for a number of bills to reduce pensions, to increase the sales tax and other austerity measures. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the volume of industrial production in the euro area, the index of business sentiment in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the index of small business optimism in the US (10:00 GMT), and important statistics on retail sales in the United States ( 12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound yesterday showed growth against the backdrop of positive news for the negotiations on the Greek question, but was not able to continue the growth and continued the decline within the local downtrend. Today, the dynamics will depend on the statistics on inflation (08:30 GMT). In addition, investors will not rush to open new positions ahead of tomorrow's publication of important statistics on the labor market in the country. We expect a drop in prices in the near future, but a local downtrend may soon shift to a local upward. Our medium-term outlook is negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued its decline against the background of weakening demand for defensive assets, weak data on industrial production in Japan and renewed speculation about the Fed raising interest rates this year. Improving the situation on the Chinese stock market also has calmed investors. Tomorrow will be published a statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy, but more influence will have statistics on China's GDP growth, a slowdown of which may increase the demand for defensive assets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian Dollar showed growth after a decline the day before due to technical factors, as well as due to the increase of the index of business sentiment in Australia, which in June rose to 10, compared to 8 in May. The investors are in no hurry with action before the publication of data on GDP and industrial production in China, which will be released tomorrow and the deterioration that was negatively displayed on quotations of the Australian dollar. In addition, tomorrow little impact on the dynamics of prices will have data on the index of consumer confidence in Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to gradually decline on expectations of further reduction in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Easing of monetary policy in the country is aimed at maintaining the consumer and the economy as a whole against the background of the negative impact of lower export prices. Potential of falling has reduced, but we maintain a medium-term negative outlook, and see no reason for the resumption of growth in the near future.