14.08.2015 - Investors are waiting for statistics on GDP growth in the euro area
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to consolidate after the publication of statistics on retail sales in the US, which grew in July by 0.6%, in line with expectations and supported dollar purchases. The decline of the US currency due to devaluation of the yuan has stopped. Today, the central event of the day will be the publication of data on GDP growth in the euro area (08:00 GMT), which are likely to please investors, in spite of uneven growth in the monetary union. At the same time, we should pay attention to the statistics on industrial production in the US (13:15 GMT) and the index of US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan (14:00 GMT). We expect a drop in prices in the medium term.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate around current levels, and to continue the price growth is required a significant stimulus. It should be noted that the expected increase in interest rates of the Fed this year will negatively influence the quotes of the British currency. At the same time, the tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England is not expected before the first quarter of 2016. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the volume of production in the construction sector of the country (8:30 GMT), which was one of the drivers of growth in the labor market and the economy as a whole. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen after a sharp strengthening amid the weakening US dollar and rising demand for protective assets due to the devaluation of the yuan, resumed falling. It should be noted that for the downward movement acceleration is needed new incentives in the near future that will likely continue moving the quotes near the current levels. On Monday, a strong influence on the course of trading will be the publication of preliminary data on GDP growth in the second quarter. We expect a fall in price of the yen in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after strong volatility caused by the devaluation of the yuan and rising concerns about the future demand for Australian exports. It is worth noting that earlier the RBA lowered its forecast of economic growth in Australia due to low export prices, a reduction in investment in the mining sector and the weakness of the labor market. Reserve Bank of Australia does not exclude a further weakening of the national currency, which was negatively displayed on the price of the Australian dollar. We expect a drop in prices in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar fell today after a report on retail sales in the country, which grew by only 0.1%, compared with an expected increase of 0.5%. In addition, the negative was the statement by the rating agency S&P, which has declared a major revision of the rating of the dairy company Fontera with the possible downgrade. We recall that dairy products are the main export group for the country. We expect a fall in price of the yen in the medium term.