14.08.2015 - Oil may fall to $ 40 a barrel

The price of gold started to correct after a strong growth caused by the devaluation of the yuan and speculation regarding the more recent increase in interest rates of the Fed. It is worth noting that the World Gold Council published a report according to which the demand for gold in the second quarter fell by 12% to its lowest level in 6 years. Jewelry is about 60% of the consumption of gold in the world and its consumption decreased by 14% in the second quarter. The increased interest in gold is possible in case of a fall of the US stock markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to fall against the backdrop of saving excess oil supply on the market, which may in the next year to grow by 0.7-1.0 million barrels due to the lifting of sanctions against Iran. In addition, traders are concerned about the devaluation of the yuan, as well as news about the slowdown in industrial production in China to 6.0%, against expectations of 6.8%. End of season trips in the United States also appears negatively for the demand for oil. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the decline to the psychologically important level of $ 40 a barrel in the near future.

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