14.09.2016 - Investors are waiting for the important data from the US on Thursday and Friday
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to consolidate against the background of saving tension before the publication of important statistics on retail sales in the US tomorrow and the consumer price index on Friday. Rising inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the near future. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the volume of industrial production in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). Volatility during this and next week will be increased due to the expectation of the Fed’s statement on monetary policy on 21 September. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we look forward to the beginning of decline in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed decline amid a stronger US dollar, as well as contradictory statistics on inflation in the UK. The main event today will be the release of a report on the labor market in the country (08:30 GMT), which can lead to a strong movement on the market and will affect tomorrow's decision the Bank of England on monetary policy. We do not rule out lowering interest rates Bank of England tomorrow, but according to our estimates the regulator will not rush with the new incentive measures. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the growth potential is limited.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen has weakened against the US dollar amid speculation about a possible strengthening of stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan. Furthermore, negative data was the reduction in the country's industrial production in July by 0.4% against the expected 0.0%. The focus of investors in the coming days will be on the news from the United States, and the movement of the dollar. We forecast a drop of the yen against the background of weak macroeconomic indicators and divergence in monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar corrected upwards after the strong decline. It is worth noting that investors were disappointed by the data on the index of consumer confidence in Australia, which grew by only 0.3% in September against 2.0% in August. Strong influence on the mood of investors will have news on the labor market, which will be published tomorrow. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but we do not exclude the continuation of the correction on the background of fixing positions after the recent decline.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a decrease after were published the news on the balance of payments of the country, the deficit of which in the second quarter totaled 0.95 billion vs. expected 0.30 billion. The drop was short-lived and price showed a correction after the strong decline of the previous days. We expect strong price movement after tomorrow will be published data on the growth of the GDP of New Zealand in the second quarter. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.