14.09.2016 - Probability of oil decline in the medium term has increased

The price of gold continued to decline against the background of fixing long positions before the publication of the Fed's statement on monetary policy on 21 September. Strong influence on the course of trading will have news on retail sales in the US, which will be published tomorrow and Friday's report on the consumer price index in the United States. Accelerating inflation will lead to an earlier increase in interest rates in the country, which will reduce the attractiveness of gold compared to fixed-income assets. According to our estimates, the potential of price fall reduced and in the near future a strong incentive for growth could be a drop on the stock markets, which will increase the demand for defensive assets.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil showed decline after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for growth in oil consumption in 2016 by 100 thousand barrels, and in 2017 by 200 thousand barrels. In addition, according to the OPEC forecasts, oil oversupply on the market will be 760 barrels barrels per day. Investors were also disappointed with a slowdown in demand from China and India. Today, the focus will be on the news on US oil inventories (14:30 GMT), which will lead to increased volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative with targets 35-36 dollars per barrel.

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